Christmas market ' hidden next year? _ yangyijun _ Sina Blog

Christmas mystery hidden in the stock market? next year on December 22, 2008 in Santa Claus will soon distribute gifts these days, stock market investors hope that the market can give them a gift. Historically, December has been the best of the year, the month of January. Even more eager to December of the last five trading days and 1 month of the first five trading days is often the most powerful stock prices over a period of time, although this time some people have too much about the stock market. Of course, now belongs to the very period, this is people currently pay special attention to the end of stock. If the stock market's performance increases as in the past, to give everyone a gift, investors will be more optimistic about 2009. If the stock market performance, on the road next year is still uneven worries will further spread. A year ago happened has shocked investors, when the stock market did not extend the consistent trend in history. The Dow Jones industrial average stock price index on a Christmas gifts: in 2007, the last five trading days in the 1.4%. Then, the index in the new year's top five trading days and declined 5.1%. This performance is completely different in the past. Ned DavisResearch, since 1901, the Dow Jones index is about the last year of the last five trading days average up 1.1%, in the new year of the first trading week average up 0.6%. This is much better than a year a general trading week, the Dow Jones index rose on average about 0.1% (this also reflects the stock average gradually higher tendency). Beginning in 2008, the stock market is so bad, investors cannot say they did not receive a warning. As of last Friday, the Dow Jones index in 2008 decreased by 35%, to 8579.11 points, including in December by 2.8% in 2008 as a whole only remaining seven trading days. Concern for the 10 trading began in this year's Christmas Eve, and continue until 8 January next year. The stock market at the end of the strong reasons usually lies in the middle of December, the tax situation of investor interest in the investment portfolio that will sell the stock losses to offset can profit from the sale of stock prices. (Or even decrease of stock from buying date may still be rising, so in this year's stock sold stock in who may still have to pay capital gains tax. Tax-loss selling disc in the middle of December to bring pressure on the stock market, especially for small stocks trading activity light. But to Christmas, most people completed the tax-loss selling. Since then their funds began to return to the stock market. People at the end of the investment in the stock market is hope the new year arrives when the cash injection into the pension account, but usually this will push the stock price. In addition, a number of professional investment managers will buy the stock at the end of the year, want to temporarily increase the proportion of their stocks, improve performance, this is the so-called whitewash performance. If all fails to start from Christmas Eve to the 10 trading days would boost the stock market, then it means that something has gone wrong. New York broker Miller Tabak chief technology market analyst Ross (PhilRoth) in a customer report writes: 1 month does not appear when you buy a lot, it means that the investor made a clear decision not to buy. The stock market usually rise in January, if not rise, this will probably be difficult (subliminal message is dropped). Last year's situation is such that this is the moment investors eager to be rid of the situation. Although the 10 trading days is a measure of the extent of investor concerns a good target, but some analysts have pointed out that, historically, the entire month of January has been able to more reliably predict this year for the remainder of the stock market's performance. If the stock market in the end no 1, this will be a sign of worse. Since 1901, after 1 month appear to rise in the stock market over the next 11 months performance than in January fell after the next 11 months performance is much better, especially since 1950. NedDavis collected data since 1950, the Dow Jones index 1 month rise, over the next 11 months average up 9.8%; 1 month after the plunge in the next 11 months, the average increase in 1.6%, what is more, many more years was in a terrible setback after 1 month. Since 1950, February-12-month average performance is up 7.1%. With the performance of the stock market in January to predict the next 11 months of practice is not absolutely accurate. In 2001, the Dow Jones index rose slightly in January, the remainder of that year, but fell by 8% of the aggregate. This approach in 2003 and 2005 also fails, then Dow Jones index fell in January, but the remainder of that year. However, for the past three years is proven. Some analysts worry that even Santa Claus is coming January heart let the stock market rebounded, investors should do a hard bumps of the psychological preparation for 2009. Barclays Global Investors in San Francisco investment policy holders Sixt Ridge (RussKoesterich) said, I think we will have a fairly good ending. Investors have accepted this view, the economic recession, they will be on the United States Federal Reserve Board (Fed) fully supports the practice of the financial system. Sixt Ridge said, people on the Obama administration's stimulus package scheme have hope may boost the stock market in January. However, the reality of an economic downturn, are still in need of financial systems and problematic company profits may once again dragged down the stock slumped. Sixt Ridge said that the stock market will soar? of course. Continue? may not.